I'm actually a tick late with this one. The season is 72 games long this year, making it four perfectly even 18-game quarters long. And because I am a logical person, I graded the Sixers first after 18 games and again after 36. But this time I slacked off a bit, and let it stretch to 20 games.
Ah, well. I'm not perfect.
But it does give me more bandwidth to examine the players in what was unequivocally their best stretch of the season, particularly coming off a week in which they knocked off three excellent teams in the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers, and most importantly the Brooklyn Nets, who happen to be their chief rival for Eastern Conference supremacy.
And supreme in the East they are. Since I last handed out report cards, Philadelphia has completed a 15-5 sprint to improve to 39-17 thus far, a full game ahead of the Nets 38-18 mark. The Sixers net rating has climbed from +3.4 at the All-Star Break to +5.3, moving them to sixth in the league and second in the East, up from eighth and third previously. They moved up one space on offense to thirteenth (112.5 offensive rating), and their defense is all the way up to second in the league now with a suffocating 107.2 defensive rating. And perhaps the best confidence booster has been their excellence on the road--after starting the year 8-9 away from the Wells Fargo Center, they've managed to improve to 17-12. Doc Rivers has his boys firing on all cylinders.
To grade the players, I'm going to use the same mathematical formulas I used in my previous entry to to examine the most consistent contributors. Scaled through 56 games, by my definition, that means 672 cumulative minutes. For anyone who has been banged up or ferried an inconsistent role but managed to play in at least half of the team's games (28), I will look at them on a case-by-case basis as described once again in the previous entry in this series. Basically, it's my cheat to allow Mike Scott (664 minutes in 37 games ) and Tyrese Maxey (648 in 47) to get a look.
However, this time around, I will cover those guys in their own section--which will be a part of a new format for this iteration of the grades. I'll split those two, the other key contributors from the bench, and the starters to give this kind of a nice tiered feel. It also serves as a nice mental dividing up of the team because it more or less seems like the bulk of Doc Rivers' rotation is set in stone at this point. Speaking of which, apologies to George Hill, who will not make an appearance here as he has yet to suit up for the Sixers.
One more point of order: the net ratings you see listed by most players' key stats is courtesy of PBP Stats. It is the player's net rating relative to the Sixers, not the team's overall net rating when on the court. I may cite that mark separately in some instances, but I just wanted to clarify that here.
And with that, to the grading we go!
Pour One Out
A quick shout out to the guys that are no longer with the team for one reason or another: Ignas Brazdeikis, Terrance Ferguson, Dakota Mathias, and Vincent Poirier. They combined to score 58 total points on 70 field goal attempts in 219 minutes across 32 appearances.
Of that quartet, Ferguson is the most theoretically interesting as I've discussed multiple times in this space. 22-year-old athletic 6'6" wings tend to have appeal, especially since he's had relative success in the league before--in 2018-19 for the 49-win Oklahoma City Thunder, he started 74 games and striped 106 threes at 36.6%. Still, after being acquired by the Knicks as part of the George Hill deal, he was immediately waived. He might be running out of chances to stick.
And finally, I wanted to give a special fist bump to Tony Bradley. He is also fits the criteria of the four players above, but it just felt wrong including him with those guys. The 6'10" big man flashed genuine usefulness in his time with the Sixers, even recording a +9.4 net rating swing. He played to his strengths and put up some impressive rate-based numbers (13.7 points and 13.0 rebounds per-36 minutes). He isn't a future star by any stretch of the imagination, but he definitely has a role in this league. I only gave him a C last time around because I didn't think his play would maintain its effectiveness during extended stretches. Over his final 8 games here though, seven of which started in Joel Embiid's stead, he averaged 7.8 points on 80.6% shooting (literally, actually not a typo) and 6.8 rebounds in 20.0 minutes. There's something to be said for thriving in the niche cut for you. As a parting gift, I'll break my own minutes played rule and bump his grade up a full letter to a B.
New Blood
We have three newcomers to this squad since the last gradings session (Brazdeikis technically counts as a fourth, but he was waived after his lone appearance), so let's give a warm Philly welcome to...Mason Jones, Anthony Tolliver, and Rayjon Tucker.
Jones and Tucker have barely 500 minutes combined, and neither figure to be anything more than garbage time sponges at any point going forward. The duo currently occupies both of the Sixers' available two-way contracts. Although it should be noted Jones does seem to have a serviceable deep ball (24-for-66 in his career, 36.4%).
Tolliver may actually see some spot minutes going forward. To whit, the 13-year veteran played 14 minutes in his very first game with the Sixers (though to be fair, Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, and Dwight Howard were all out). The 6'8" forward is a solid career 37.3% 3-point shooter (since 2014-15, he's been even better at 38.8%), plays high-IQ team defense and is generally a valuable bench presence, something to which the first ten (!) teams he played for can attest.
Welcome Back
After covering departures and new arrivals, I'll now move on to returning faces. After spending time with the Delaware Blue Coats of the G-League to get regular playing time, both Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed have returned to the big club. Much like those in the previous section, neither of these guys figure to get much run outside of blowouts, but they're still worth keeping an eye on.
Reed in particular is like a fun mystery box to me. He absolutely balled out for the Blue Coats, filling up the box score to a remarkable degree: 22.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.8 blocks. That obscene production led his team to the title game, and earned him the league's MVP and Rookie of the Year Awards, making him only the third player in G-League history to snag both in the same year. Of course nobody is expecting that type of performance up here, but his development is certainly something worth monitoring.
Joe has actually already how some substantial run with the Sixers. In his 29 games, he's averaged 9.8 minutes, bringing him fairly close to qualifying for the next section. His big selling point coming out of college was his outside shooting, and so far that hasn't translated on the stat sheet (25-for-75 from beyond, 33.3%), but his mechanics and rainbow arcing shot look good. He also projects to be a steady defender despite less than stellar athleticism and unremarkable physical tools (6'4", 165 pounds). Given time, he might be something.
Maxey and Scott
As I mentioned earlier, these guys are getting the exclusive treatment this time around. Both of them are or at least were key contributors for the Sixers at varying points this season.
Tyrese Maxey, SG
Grade: C
Unfortunately for the exciting rookie, Maxey has all but fallen out of Doc Rivers' rotation. Over the last 20 games, the 20-year-old has recorded 5 DNPs and averaged just 9.7 minutes in his 15 appearances, largely in inconsequential situations. Through the All-Star Break, he had played in 32 of the team's 36 games and averaged 16.2 minutes.
This isn't egregious. Maxey's play has visibly fallen off as the year has gone on, which is far from abnormal for a freshman on a contender. Over his last ten games, He's given the Sixers just 4.6 points on an uninspiring 39.0/28.6/90.9 shooting line. He still profiles as a big part of the future going forward. He has clear ball skills, a legit float game, and strong defensive tools. And nobody will soon forget his 39-point outburst all of ten games into his career. But it also isn't surprising the Sixers get damn near blown off the court during his minutes. Such is the rookie experience.
Mike Scott, PF
Grade: C-
Mike Scott missed a great deal of time fighting injuries and it has affected his minutes totals, but he is absolutely at least a rotation player when healthy. To that end, in playing in every game in this past quarter, he averaged 17.7 minutes. The problem is, as it has been all year even before the injuries, is his shot has completely abandoned him. For the season, he is managing a 35.7/33.3/60.0 shooting slash, but over these 20 games, he's been even worse at 31.9/30.1/80.0. Not that he's ever been confused with a true marksman, but entering the season he was at least a functional 36.4% career 3-point shooter.
His defense is steady enough to shave .5 points off the team's defensive rating when he's on the court, but his offensive ineptitude takes that minimal gain and torpedoes it. The only reason his grade improved is because, as they say, the best ability is availability, and he is back to playing everyday. But Scott has just not been a good player this season. If he continues to struggle like this, maybe that Tolliver signing will be worth more than just veteran mentorship.
The Second Unit
Dwight Howard, C
Grade: B-
Key Stats: 8.3 RPG, -13.5 net rating
Raw production sees Howard warrant a minor bump in pay. He finally missed his first two games of the year, but in the 18 contests he did suit up in during this third volley of the season, he pulled down 10.1 boards and rejected 1.1 shots in just 20.3 minutes. He actually sits 17th in the league in rebounds and rebounds per game despite averaging only 17.4 minutes pre game for the season.
He's also fouling 6.3 times per-36 minutes and the Sixers are have a -3.4 net rating when he plays, and just about every live-ball statistic for the Sixers is worse with him in the game. But he's a true backup at this late stage of his likely Hall of Fame career. He's asked to finish plays at the rim on offense, hoard rebounds, and be a generally physical force. He does those things serviceably enough.
Furkan Korkmaz, SG
Grade: C+
Key Stats: 37.6% 3P%, +0.0 net rating
Furkan Korkmaz has done his damnedest to shut me up after I criticized him ad nauseum for much of the year. Check out his growth this quarter:
First 36 team games (25 appearances): 8.0 points on 38.3/34.5/80.0
Last 20 (20): 11.2 points on 43.0/40.7/67.4
This does not absolve him for his topsy-turvy performance. Even in this largely successful 20-game sample, he managed six games with 16+ points and seven with 7 or fewer. He's currently on a 6-game hot streak (14.8 points on 49.2/43.5/64.3) that directly followed a 6-game APB alert (5.0 points on 27.0/27.8/71.4). But still, it is encouraging that the eruptions are no longer exceptions to the rule so much as anticipated peaks running counter to his valleys.
Oddly though, it is the defensive end where the team is benefitting from him the most. Defensive ratings can be a bit fluky, but Korkmaz's presence coincides with a 2.2 point drop in that metric, while also depressing the team's offensive rating by the same, hence the break even net rating above. Again, this is likely just noise--Korkmaz is on this team to bang threes and can the occasional floater, not go toe-to-toe with the opposition's best perimeter scorer--but I just found it interesting to point out.
Shake Milton, SG
Grade: B+
Key Stats: 13.6 PPG, +0.3 net rating
Shake has cemented himself as the sixth man for this team, and for good reason. I was a bit critical of him for his inconsistency in the previous entry, much like how I just harped on Korkmaz above, but Milton has been much more productive than not of late. In his last 20 games, he's failed to reach double figures only five times, and he's it at least 12 points a dozen times. His efficiency is on the upswing, too--he's shooting 47.7/37.9/77.8 in that sequence after slashing 44.1/31.3/88.7 through his first 28 games. Like Korkmaz, it is again the defensive end where the team actually feels Milton's impact most according to net ratings, but also like the former, ignore that. Shake is here to fill it up.
The Sixers need this version of Shake to carry into the playoffs. Yes, benches shrink, and the starters will likely all be tasked with 38-40 minutes a night, but if Milton can come off the bench and help float the offense and hit his shots from the outside like he had before this season (career 40.2% 3-point shooter entering 2020-2021), that would be an under-the-radar boon for this team.
Matisse Thybulle, SG
Grade: B-
Key Stats: 3.7 STL%, 4.6 BLK%, +0.5 net rating
Okay, this time the eye test definitely backs the net rating--the Sixers' defense improves by 2.0 points with Thybulle on the floor. Considering Thybulle leads the entire NBA in steal percentage and ranks 14th in the league in block percentage (this man is only 6'5", folks) it would be hard for that rating to inflate. If not for his limited role (19.4 minutes per game), the 23-year-old would absolutely deserve some All-Defense team love.
But that's not why he got the whole letter grade increase from me. I've praised his terrifying shutdown chops all season. No, the boost comes from the actually not godawful offensive contributions he's made of late. Nobody is going to win a scoring title averaging 4.7 points, but that's an entire point above his season-long average, and they've even come on boosted efficiency in this quarter: 46.9/36.7/0.0. No, Thybulle will never be James Harden (the zero free throws made in the last 20 games kinda puts a damper on that hope). But I'm back to hoping he could be a guy that can hit an open triple here and there, and if he can do that, that stellar defense would make him practically a prime Danny Green clone, which would be a plus starter on multiple championship rosters for over a decade. I will absolutely take that.
The Starters
Seth Curry, SG
Grade: B
Key Stats: 12.0 PPG on 44.5/41.0/89.4 shooting, +5.8 net rating
We're officially at the point where Curry's titanic season opening act (17.0 points on 60.3/59.5/100.0 through first 8 games with three 20+ point efforts) is clearly nothing more than a hot streak as opposed to a new normal. Maybe I'm being a touch harsh given the 6'2" guard's battle with the cornonavirus--he has been on record about his struggles getting his wind back--but those early numbers were on track to be a career outlier anyway. Entering the season, Curry had never averaged greater than 12.8 points, and his career shooting splits were 47.5/44.3/83.8. That's still very impressive, certainly, but far cry from the 2K-type numbers he was on track for. And even if the shiny box scores did portend a midcareer breakout, maintaining that level of efficiency was always a pipe dream.
Still, he hasn't just fallen back to earth, he's completely lost his touch. Since the All-Star Break, Curry has appeared in 16 of the Sixers' games and given the team 11.2 points on 40.8/35.3/78.6. All three of those figures would represent career lows by massive margins over the course of a full season. Stretching back further, and the picture is only marginally more flattering--toss out that pre-COVID 8-game sample, and in the 36 games he's played since, the 31-year-old has produced just 10.9 points on 41.1/36.3/85.7.
What kept me from further dropping Curry's grade from the last session was the threat of his outside shooting, which will always give him immense value, particular to this roster. Even with the struggles, he is key in making the starting five so lethal. But if his actual performance perked up to match his threat level, this team would go from being a problem to a PROBLEM.
Joel Embiid, C
Grade: A++
Key Stats: 30.0 PPG, 11.1 REB, 31.4 PER, +12.6 net rating, 8.3 BPM, future MVP, future Hall of Famer, future POTUS, MVP of Commercials, and any other praises you want to heap on him--seriously.
I'll make this quick. I had to knock off one '+' from the midseason grades solely because he gave me a heart attack. Thankfully, it wasn't as bad as it looked, and after a 3-week absence, he was back on the hardwood. Understandably, he's been a bit rusty since returning--he's only shooting 23.1 on threes in his 7 games back in the lineup--as he plays his way back into game shape. But if a rusty Embiid is putting up 30.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and getting to the free throw line 13.4 times per game, then the league should just shut down when he's back in full force. Provided he stays healthy.
Danny Green, SF
Grade: A-
Key Stats: 41.2 3P% on 6.3 3PA, +3.4 net rating
I have sung Danny Green's praises too many times in this space to list. The 3-time NBA Champion has been an absolutely perfect addition to this team. Beyond those accolades and the 145 games of playoff experience and leadership he provides, he's been great on the court. And as the season has gone on, he's only gotten better. His year long stats include 9.7 points on 41.9/41.2/75.8 shooting with 3.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.9 blocks. In this past quarter? How about 11.9 points on 46.3/47.0/92.3 with 4.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks? Those a re great numbers for someone who is the clear last option on offense in this starting lineup. He did miss his first game of the season in that span, but we're talking about a 33-year-old, 12-year veteran with over 22000 minutes on his body between the regular and postseason. His durability is just another feather in his cap.
He isn't the All-Defensive team candidate that he was in his prime years. In fact, the team's defensive rating swells by 4.9 with him on the court. But sometimes stats like that can be taken with a grain of salt, and this is one of those situations. Green still has the lateral mobility and strength to body up with guards and wings to spare Ben Simmons for some stretches, and those block and steal numbers above still standout (in fact, he ranks in the top-40 leaguewide in both STL% and BLK%, the latter of which is especially impressive for a 6'6" wing).
Overall, Green's 1.6 BPM is the second highest its been in any season since 2015-16, and this is also only the second year since then in which he has been solidly in the green (no pun intended) in both the offensive and defensive halves of that metric. He's just been a rock-solid two-way wing all year long. And he couldn't fit here better.
Tobias Harris, PF
Grade: A
Key Stats: 20.5 PPG on 56.8 eFG% and 60.9 TS%, 7.2 RPG, 20.7 PER, +4.2 net rating
I almost gave Toby an A+. He has thrived in his role as the clear cut second option (and go-to man in Embiid's absence), and he has showcased some genuine clutch scoring this season. The only thing that kept me from heaping the highest possible mark upon him was his curious decline in production of late (18.3 points and 5.1 rebounds over last 8 games). He has been battling a bit of knee soreness which would certainly justify the moderate downturn, but hopefully it's just a blip on the radar and not something that lingers down the final leg of the season and into the playoffs.
In any case, his season long performance features career highs in scoring, traditional shooting splits across the board (52.1/40.7/88.6), effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, PER, BPM, assists and AST%, WS/48, and probably a few other metrics that I didn't even think to research. Basically, this is Tobias Harris at his most efficient, proficient, and effective. He's given the Sixers the true Robin to Embiid's Batman that all contenders in this league need. The best way to summarize his play this year is with this: when is the last time you heard somebody bemoan his contract? I thought so.
Ben Simmons, PG
Grade: B
Key Stats: 14.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.1 APG, +4.4 net rating
Fitting that the most divisive player on the team, maybe even in the league, is the final one to be graded.
I was very positive about the improvements to Simmons offensive game after the second quarter. He appeared to finally be fully comfortable in the new look offense and unlocked an aggression previously unseen. To save you a click, here was the comparison between first and second quarters:
First 18 team games (16 appearances): 12.8 points on 52.5/16.7/64.7
Last 18 (15): 19.6 points on 61.8/100.0/69.5
Now here is this the third marking period:
20 team games (17 appearances): 12.6 points on 47.9/33.3/52.0
Now before sounding any alarms, there are some off the court things that are happening that I won't get into here that it would be hard to believe do not negatively impact his play. Some things are more important than sports. I am the biggest offender in forgetting that sometimes.
But nonetheless, this is both concerning and disheartening. Taken cumulatively, his PER is at a career low, along with his usage rate and assist percentage, whereas his turnover percentage is the highest its ever been. His field goal percentage is now tied for a career low, and his 2-point field goal percentage is at its basement. He was on track to set a career best at the charity stripe, and that is now gone, and only seems to be dropping further. Aside from steals, all of his traditional box score counting stats--points, rebounds, assists, and blocks--are either the lowest or tied for the lowest they have ever been.
He remains a dynamic force on defense, capable of locking down literally any position on the court. His athleticism, vision, IQ, and versatility are all intact, and he remains a terrific basketball player as is regardless of his fit on this team, his reluctance to evolve his game, his very severe and obvious limitations, and any other general complaints fandom may have. That keeps his grade here respectable.
But he has never performed this poorly overall, and asking whether he is the second best player on his own team has become a legitimate question (with all due respect to Harris, Simmons still is that, but it is worth pondering).
The bottom line is he needs to be better.